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In the 1H2025, the U.S. economy demonstrated resilience amid a high-interest-rate environment, as inflation continued its gradual descent and labor markets remained strong.

Real GDP declined by –0.5% in Q1 2025, followed by a 3% annualized rebound in Q2, resulting in cumulative growth of around +1.2% in the first half of the year.

 Net exports weighed heavily on growth in Q1 when front-loading of imports created a deep GDP drag; though in Q2, trade conditions reversed and added meaningfully to growth. Contrary to a stronger dollar narrative, the U.S. dollar actually declined about 11% YTD by mid-2025

Executive Summary
• Macro Economic Update
– Global
• Macro Economic Performance
– USA

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